Working Papers
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Report
Technological Disruption in the Global Economy
Apr 2019
A report of the Commission on Global Economic Transformation’s subcommittee on Inequality, Technology, and the Future of Work
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Working Paper Series
Lost in Deflation
Apr 2019
Why Italy’s woes are a warning to the whole Eurozone
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Working Paper Series
Economic Consequences of the U.S. Convict Labor System
Mar 2019
Prisoners employed in manufacturing constitute 4.2% of total U.S. manufacturing employment in 2005; they produce cheap goods, creating labor demand shock.
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Working Paper Series
The Knightian Uncertainty Hypothesis: Unforeseeable Change and Muth’s Consistency Constraint in Modeling Aggregate Outcomes
Mar 2019
This paper introduces the Knightian Uncertainty Hypothesis (KUH), a new approach to macroeconomics and finance theory.
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Working Paper Series
New Evidence on the Portfolio Balance Approach to Currency Returns
Feb 2019
Asset markets are indispensable in harnessing society’s diverse views and insights about future business performance. But those views are shaped as much by emotion and crowd mentality as by rational expectations.
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Working Paper Series
The Contributions of Socioeconomic and Opioid Supply Factors to Geographic Variation in U.S. Drug Mortality Rates
Feb 2019
Economic distress in rural areas and opioid exposure in cities are key indicators of overdose deaths
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Working Paper Series
Labor Laws and Manufacturing Performance in India: How Priors Trump Evidence and Progress Gets Stalled
Feb 2019
For years, governments in India and much of the developing world have followed the advice of a paper arguing that labor regulations actually hurt workers. The problem? The research was wrong.
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Working Paper Series
Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and the Stance of Monetary Policies: A Critical Assessment
Jan 2019
Starting with the literature on the estimates of the natural rate of interest, this paper critically analyzes the modern practice of identifying the benchmark rate of monetary policy with an equilibrium or neutral interest rate reflecting “fundamental forces” unaffected by monetary factors.
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Working Paper Series
Finance in Economic Growth: Eating the Family Cow
Jan 2019
The American economy changed rapidly in the last half-century. The National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) were designed before these changes started. They have stretched to accommodate new and growing service activities, but they are still organized for an industrial economy.
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Working Paper Series
Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions: The Road to ‘Hothouse Earth’ is Paved with Good Intentions
Dec 2018
Wishful thinking and tinkering won’t cut it. Nothing short of a mass mobilization for deep de-carbonization across the global economy can avert the looming climate catastrophe.
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Commentary
Why We Need a Second Bretton Woods Gathering
Nov 2018
We need a new system of rules for the digital 21st century that enhances global digital cooperation and welfare. Nothing less than a historic gathering of the world’s key decision makers will get us there.
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Working Paper Series
Citation Patterns in Economics and Beyond
Nov 2018
Assessing the Peculiarities of Economics from Two Scientometric Perspectives
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Working Paper Series
Citation Patterns in Economics and Beyond
Nov 2018
In this paper we comparatively explore three claims concerning the disciplinary character of economics by means of citation analysis.
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Working Paper Series
The Economic and Social Roots of Populist Rebellion: Support for Donald Trump in 2016
Oct 2018
This paper critically analyzes voting patterns in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
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Working Paper Series
Publishing and Promotion in Economics: The Tyranny of the Top Five
Oct 2018
This paper examines the relationship between placement of publications in Top Five (T5) journals and receipt of tenure in academic economics departments.