Macroeconomics
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Adair Turner on Debt
May 13, 2015
The former chairman of Britain’s Financial Services Authority and author of the forthcoming book “Between Debt and the Devil” explains why private debt, not banks, deepened the financial crisis and continues to cause trouble today.
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Finance & Society
ConferenceMay 5–6, 2015
Senator Elizabeth Warren, Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen, and IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde joined a renowned group of globally influential women in discussing how the financial system can be re-imagined to truly benefit society.
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Working Paper Series
An Economical Business-Cycle Model
Apr 2015
In recent decades, advanced economies have experienced low and stable inflation and long periods of liquidity trap. We construct an alternative business-cycle model capturing these two features by adding two assumptions to a money-in-the-utility-function model: the labor market is subject to matching frictions, and real wealth enters the utility function. These assumptions modify the two core equations of the standard New Keynesian model
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George Soros on the Future of Europe
Apr 10, 2015 | 03:30
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Conference paper
Austeritarianism in Europe: What Options for Resistance?
Apr 2015
In much of Europe, the social rights and social protections won in the first post-war decades, by labour movements in particular, have subsequently been seriously eroded, and are further threatened by neoliberal austerity.
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Macroeconomic Externalities
Apr 9, 2015 | 12:15—01:45
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Conference paper
Pseudo-wealth Fluctuations and Aggregate Demand Effects
Apr 2015
This paper presents a theory of pseudo-wealth in a model that displays aggregate demand externalities.
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Conference paper
Inequality, the crisis, and stagnation
Apr 2015
The inequality of income and wealth is one of the defining issues of our time, in terms of both its social and macroeconomic implications. In this article, I focus on the macroeconomic implications of inequality. In particular, it is possible to identify four themes on which there seems to be growing consensus among many economists especially in the various heterodox traditions, but also increasingly in the mainstream of the economics profession:
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Macroeconomic Causes of Inequality
Apr 8, 2015 | 06:30—07:00
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Caught in a Debt Trap
Apr 7, 2015
In his latest annual address at Cass Business School, Visiting Professor Lord Adair Turner warned that the world is caught in a ‘debt overhang’.
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Working Paper Series
Change and Rationality in Macroeconomics and Finance Theory: A New Rational Expectations Hypothesis
Mar 2015
We call attention to the class of models that serve as the foundation for the rational expectations hypothesis (REH). Models in this class rule out completely any structural change that cannot be fully anticipated with a probabilistic or other quantitative rule. REH models are abstractions of rational decision-making, but only in a hypothetical world in which participants can fully anticipate when and how they might revise their understanding of the process driving outcomes.
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Working paper
An investigation into Multivariate Variance Ratio Statistics and their application to Stock Market Predictability
Mar 2015
We propose several multivariate variance ratio statistics. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the statistics and scalar functions thereof under the null hypothesis that returns are unpredictable after a constant mean adjustment (i.e., under the weak form Efficient Market Hypothesis). We do not impose the no leverage assumption of Lo and MacKinlay (1988) but our asymptotic standard errors are relatively simple and in particular do not require the selection of a bandwidth parameter. We extend the framework to allow for a time varying risk premium through common systematic factors.
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Working Paper Series
Household Income, Demand, and Saving: Deriving Macro Data with Micro Data Concepts
Mar 2015
We develop adjustments to align the NIPA measures of key household flows with cash flow concepts that better reflect household budgets and demand.
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Europe and the Challenge of Re-Starting Growth
Mar 13, 2015
How can we reconnect economic success to socioeconomic outcomes?
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Financial Stability
As the pace of financial crises quickens and the volatility of economic shocks intensifies, we need new ways to understand and respond to instability. This program coordinates our research efforts on finance, macroeconomics, and monetary economics.