Macroeconomics
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Conference paper
The Contingent Expectations Hypothesis: Rationality and Contingent Knowledge in Macroeconomics and Finance Theory
Apr 2013
For macroeconomists, an individual is rational if she uses her understanding of the way the economy works in making decisions that do not conflict with her objectives.
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Conference paper
Rationality in the Present-Value Model of Stock Prices: Fundamentals, Psychology, and Structural Change
Apr 2013
The present-value model of stock prices is a workhorse in financial economics. The model relates today’s price of a stock (or a basket of stocks) to the market’s forecasts of next-period’s price and dividend, appropriately discounted.
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Conference paper
Forward-Rate Bias, Contingent Knowledge, and Risk: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries
Apr 2013
In this paper, we examine one of the core puzzles in International Macroeconomics, the so-called “forward-discount anomaly.”
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Conference paper
The Econometrics of Imperfect Knowledge Economics
Apr 2013
A core premise of contemporary economic models is that researchers can adequately specify in probabilistic terms how individuals alter the way they make decisions and how the processes underpinning market outcomes unfold over time.
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Conference paper
Expectational coordination failures and Market outcomes’ volatility
Apr 2013
The first part of this text comes back on the standard economic viewpoint on expectational coordination, a viewpoint that the recent events have challenged.
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Conference paper
The State, the Market and the Rule of Law
Apr 2013
State and market are often depicted as distinct, even antagonistic. Markets appear as natural products of spontaneous ordering; states as leviathans that if left untamed will distort, if not destroy markets’ natural state.
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Conference paper
Endogenising Uncertainty
Apr 2013
Uncertainty is an unavoidable feature of economic life, although we may cope with it sometimes by ignoring it. Institutions, conventions and behaviour are all conditioned by uncertainty, and they in turn condition uncertainty in a reflexive manner.
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Time and Expectations in Economic Analysis
Apr 4, 2013 | 08:45—09:45
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Conference paper
If Not Now, When? Financial Reform Must Not Await Another Crisis
Apr 2013
In the first ten chapters of our book, The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It, we discuss banking and the economics of funding as it applies to banks.
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Financial Stability Research Program
Apr 4, 2013 | 07:15—08:45
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Conference paper
Monetary and Financial Stability: Lessons from the Crisis and from classic economics texts
Apr 2013
My remarks today will be focused primarily on features of the developed world’s financial system which led to the crisis of 2008 and to the Great Recession that followed, from which we are only slowly and painfully emerging.
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Conference paper
Comments by William White on the Presentation by Lord Adair Turner
Apr 2013
In his recent lecture at the Cass Business School, Lord Turner noted that even mentioning the possibility of overt monetary financing was akin to breaking a taboo.
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Macroeconomic Policy and Economic Stability: Lessons of the Historical Experience with Fiat Money and the Implications for the Future
Apr 3, 2013 | 11:30—12:30
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As Goes Cyprus, So Goes the European Union
Mar 31, 2013
All of a sudden, tiny Cyprus is making headlines. How could such a small country, with an economy approximately the size of the State of Maranhao, create such big problems?
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Meeting New Challenges in China
Mar 27, 2013
Further system reforms will enable China to overcome middle-income trap and push forward social progress