Finance

The 21 FMM conference of the The Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) will take place in Berlin on 9-11 November 2017.

How Germany, the EU and the economics field itself suffer from myopia—and what we can do about it

Not just an American dilemma: is political money in dual economies the biggest problem of all?

One might think of the satisfied consensus reigning in macroeconomics before the financial crisis (and still relatively entrenched) as evidence of “Groupthink” in a “Divided State”

The consensus that reigned in macroeconomics before the financial crisis has come under renewed attack.

Macroeconomics and finance beyond DSG

The deregulatory zeal of the 1990s and 2000s has returned to the US and the post-Brexit plans to protect the City in the UK sound like the pre-crash light-touch mentality that fueled global regulatory arbitrage.  As a result, a foremost “challenge of our time” is to stop “subsidizing more one-way bets” and “doubling down on failure.”

An Assessment and Some Policy Implications

One-way bets and bubble machines: How can central banks restrain moral hazard when markets know they bail out big banks in financial crises?

Decomposition by such an important category as gender helps us understand the economy at the macro level, and design macroeconomic policy, better. It also provides the foundation for advocating equal gender rights and outcomes. But, where gendered policy issues arise in mainstream macroeconomics (income maldistribution, labour market composition, etc.) the subject matter is narrowed by its microfoundations, by focusing on GDP growth and on suboptimal outcomes being explained by market imperfections.

What would it look like if women and other marginalized groups could fully participate in our economy and society?

Untangling the Facts about Immigration in the World Economy.

After re-iterating five well-known theorems about the properties of conditional expectations in stationary settings—such as providing unbiased minimum mean square error predictions despite in- complete information, and the law of iterated expectations—we clarify unpredictability and illustrate its prevalence empirically.

In the paper that we present this afternoon, Soren Johansen, Anders Rahbek, Morten Tabor, and I introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes.

How we can create useful economic theory that recognizes that the future is radically uncertain?