Finance

This research project aims to better understand the impact of various forms of central bank communication by blending techniques from psychology and political science.

This research project provides the mathematics for a second marginal revolution enabling the natural modeling of heterogeneous agents with unstable beliefs, fully dynamic preferences, and allowances for an increased level of self-inconsistency.

This research project creates a computational model of the current financial crisis to discover the essential elements needed to reproduce the crisis, while investigating alternative policies that may have reduced its intensity and strategies for recovery.

This research project uses spatial cross-sectional variation in addition to time series variation to estimate fiscal multipliers; the impact of anti-predatory lending laws on housing prices, default rates, and foreclosures; and the impact of raising wages during recessions.

This research project explores how the output of firms outside of the financial sector is affected by the health of the banks and other financial institutions.

This research project explores ways to influence policy, starting with selected UK regulators, pension funds, and asset management groups, by testing the feasibility of “emotional finance” solutions to the prevention of future financial crises.

This research project examines the relationship between the creation of money, price formation, and income flows, assuming no restrictions to the volume of credit, while abstracting from the existence of speculative crises and the role of the public sector in the process of monetary creation.

We derive generalization error bounds — bounds on the expected inaccuracy of the predictions — for traditional time series forecasting models.

The European periphery is qualitatively dierent from the core.

Ireland has experienced a series of interlocking banking, fiscal, unemployment and political crises since 2007.

The Eurocrisis has many dimensions—bank solvency crisis, sovereign debt crisis, political unity crisis, and economic/unemployment crisis—but time after time it has been the liquidity crisis dimension driving events, and ECB response to the liquidity crisis driving institutional evolution. The reason is simple. Liquidity kills you quick.

Two Nobel laureates, an election, and a shaky economy. The message? We can do a whole lot better.

What do you get when you put two of the most well known and most widely cited economists in the world, both Nobel laureates, on stage together? A healthy dose of economic reality.

China released quarterly GDP figures this week. Wen Jiabao emphasized the parts of the release that pointed toward stabilization, and one can certainly find some logic to that view.

What makes a good model?